Saturday, 20 October 2012

Game of the Week

No Ray-vens: Lewis and Webb injuries boost Texans

Over the past five years, the Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best defensive units in the National Football League.

In 2012 however, they have not been so prolific.

Their defense ranks 26th in the league in terms of yards allowed, and despite holding the Chiefs, Bengals and Browns to under 16 points this season, more offensively talented teams have proved that this Ravens squad can be susceptible to big plays. New England and Dallas were both touching 30 points against them, and arguably had a better chance to win their respective games than the Ravens themselves. DeMarco Murray was on pace for a huge day, amassing 91 yards off just 13 carries before his injury forced him to leave the game, and the success of Felix Jones and even Philip Tanner in his place goes further to expel the myth that no-one can run on the Baltimore defense.

And after all these shortcomings, the team proceeded to lose corner Lardarius Webb and important defensive leader, linebacker Ray Lewis, to a possible season ending triceps injury. He has been placed on Injured Reserve and looks unlikely to play again this season, despite the designated to return tag on his name.

Sidelined: Ray Lewis is set to miss the rest of the season

In contrast to this decline in status, the Houston Defense seems to be going in the opposite direction. Last season and this season has seen a changed unit that now ranks in the top 6 regarding yards allowed - and bear in mind they are yet to have their bye week, and suffered a high scoring defeat to the Packers last Sunday, which can be seen as an anomaly.

With Baltimore's already declining defensive unit becoming depleted of its stars, the formidable Texans offense should cause a heap of problems. Here follows my analysis for this big AFC matchup:

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans:

Score: BAL 17 - 27 HOU

Analysis: After a hot start, Joe Flacco has struggled in recent weeks to inspire the Ravens passing attack, and his primary weapon Torrey Smith has been equally quiet, putting up mediocre numbers against Kansas City and Dallas. Despite Aaron Rodgers torching what has been a very solid Texans secondary last week, that was Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco does not have anywhere near the talent of the Packers quarterback. A couple of picks should be on the cards for Flacco, although he could well re-establish a connection of sorts with Smith - connecting with him for a couple of big plays down the field. The most consistent option in the offense outside of Ray Rice looks to be Anquan Boldin, who has been catching plenty of his targets recently - his production going forward will be essential, especially considering that Dennis Pitta has suffered a decline in his numbers after a fast start at Tight End.

As for the Texans, I see a huge day for Arian Foster. The best running back in the league should have no problems carving up the Ravens, who were struggling against what was seemingly the entire Dallas running back depth chart. Matt Schaub's game should be solid, but I feel the Texans will gain a lead early, and will not need to pass as much as Flacco. Such will be the dominance of the Texans, I fancy Ben Tate to get in the end-zone as well, in relief of Foster.

Bold Prediction: Arian Foster will rush for 120 yards and two touchdowns.


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