London Review

Home from Home: Brady lights up Wembley again

As the thousands of fans headed down Wembley Way towards the stadium before kick off yesterday, they were flanked by two large posters. One depicted the stars of the league leading New England Patriots offense, while the other showed the key figures of the St Louis Rams' defense - a unit that has grown in stature and has gained more respect as the season has unfolded. These promotional images seemed to epitomise the expectations and predictions of the majority, in the sense that this would be a match involving a sometimes irresistible offence, attempting to breakthrough one of the most underrated defensive squads in the National Football League.

Unfortunately for the home team, the game was not as close as its billing suggested.

Tom Brady and the Patriots were simply too strong for a Rams team that showed promise when they took the lead on the first drive of the game. Sam Bradford's 50 yard pass to Chris Givens was immediately cancelled out by the Pats, as Brady found Brandon Lloyd in the right corner of the end-zone. With scores on the opening two drives and both quarterbacks with flawless completion ratings, the game offered glimmers of a possible shootout in the making, however, the Rams failed to score again, and the Patriots were able to open up a sizeable 28-7 lead at halftime.

Brandon Lloyd finished with only two catches for 28 yards, however both his grabs went for six points. Lloyd, who caught seven passes for 169 yards and a touchdown for the Denver Broncos at Wembley in 2010, seems to enjoy playing in the UK.

New England in Old England: Brandon Lloyd lining up against the Rams yesterday

Aside from Brady's four-touchdown masterclass, Rob Gronkowski showed elements of his 2011 season form in an eight catch, 146 yard and two score performance, and reminded everyone why he is arguably the best tight end in the league with an incredible diving catch in the last two minutes of the first quarter, that left him a yard shy of the end-zone.

Such was the Patriots' dominance, that Brady was rested for the latter half of the fourth quarter, and after a 45-7 victory to go with the 35-7 win against Tampa Bay in 2009, the Patriots seem to have built up a fan base in London and must thoroughly enjoy playing here.

In the post game press conferences, Brady described the match as 'a fun day offensively' and praised the teams performance in London as 'a great team effort'. Coach Belichick allowed himself a smile when asked about the Patriots success in the United Kingdom, and alluded to the 'growing support' for his team which was recognisable during the game.

Both teams now have a bye week to regroup and prepare for their next games against Buffalo and San Francisco respectively.

The NFL comes to Wembley

St Louis "host" Patriots in sixth International series game for London

When Bill Belichick's team arrived in the UK earlier this week, star quarterback Tom Brady drove home a message concerning the attitude of his team regarding playing football in London. 

He expressed the fact that 'this is not a sightseeing tour, we are here to play football'. It is hard to doubt the focus of Brady, who knows what it takes to win here - the 35-7 defeat of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers  back in 2009 was an undeniably convincing performance from his team, and arguably worked to generate a wider fan base in London. 

However, the dominant performance of the Patriots three years ago would not only seem to boost the confidence of Belichick's squad, but could possibly detract from the hopes of the St Louis Rams as well. 

In 2009, Tampa Bay were the home team, yet perhaps due to the more recent successes of the Patriots (who won the Superbowl three times in five years from 2001-2005) the crowd seemed to negate the supposed home advantage of the Bucs, despite the promotion and cues that are set up to encourage the crowd to root for the 'home' team. 

There are fears that a similar problem will occur at the expense of the Rams, who have been one of the weaker teams in the league of late. However, this season has seen a team predicted to have one of the worst records in the NFL, step up, particularly defensively with the addition of corners Janoris Jenkins and Cortland Finnegan.

They have been competitive in possibly the most closely fought division in the league, the NFC West, and three weeks ago, all the teams in that division boasted a positive record. With this improvement to a team that went 2-14 in 2011, this years London game could be more even affair than many first thought when it appeared on the schedule.

The Rams have been training here all week at Arsenal Football Club's Hertfordshire training facilities, hoping to acclimatize quickly to not only the time difference but also the colder climate, that contrasts from their home on the west coast.

With the Rams' surprising performances this year, and New England struggling by their own standards at 4-3, it should make for an interesting matchup for the always enthusiastic fans at Wembley. The different culture, weather and atmosphere could also play a part in this game, possibly providing further excitement and some extra twists.

    

Thursday Night Recap

Buccing the Trend: Freeman and co hand Vikings first home defeat

The Minnesota Vikings have enjoyed an excellent start to the season, racing to 5-2 after seven weeks of action, and this can be attributed largely to their home form. Going into last nights matchup with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, the Vikings were boasting a 4-0 record at the Mall of America Field, and must have fancied themselves against a Bucs outfit that has had some difficulty in closing out games of late. 

No-one, however, least of all Leslie Frazier's team, expected Doug Martin to break out in the way that he did.

The first round draft pick out of Boise State exploded against what has been a very stout Vikings run defense, for over 200 yards from scrimmage and two scores. The 5-9", 223 pound back answered critics over his sluggish start to the season, with a number of  powerful runs, including a 64 yard reception from Josh Freeman, which he took to the house. 

So dominant was Martin's performance, that LeGarrette Blount was only given eight touches in relief, confirming the status of Martin as the true number one. Further fears of Blount vulturing away touchdowns in the red zone were also partly expelled last night, with Martin hitting pay dirt on a one yard run in the fourth quarter.

Teach me how to Dougie: Martin on his way to a breakout performance

Despite an impressive performance from Martin's counterpart, Adrian Peterson, who rushed for 123 yards and a score, it was not enough to keep up with the Bucs, who opened up an insurmountable 27-10 lead, only a few minutes into the second half.

Josh Freeman continues to impress, and kept up his recent good form - in his last three games he has thrown for three touchdowns in each one, with only one interception. This is the kind of score to turnover ratio that he promised during his encouraging rookie season, and has seemingly turned things around from his somewhat disappointing sophomore year (16 TD's and 22 INT's). While Mike Williams starred as the most prolific receiver last night, Vincent Jackson's sub-par performance of 40 receiving yards can be attributed to the dominance of the running game, and should turn things around next week against the Raiders.

With Tampa visiting Oakland next week and Minnesota travelling to Seattle, the former have the more favourable matchup - the Raiders have struggled defensively of late, and with the Bucs' passing and running games red hot at the moment, they have a very realistic chance of making it to .500 on the season. The Vikings will face a Seahawks defense that has been brutal at home, proving too much for the often unstoppable Patriots passing game a couple of weeks ago.

The trends therefore seem to have reversed after this surprising result, with the Buccaneers on the rise, and the Vikings facing some tough matchups going forward.

    

Weekly Predictions

Monday Night Blues: Detroit face tough road game in Chicago

The NFC North standings aren't shaping up to be what people predicted two months ago. The 15-1 Packers of 2011 have been underwhelming so far, and the Lions have suffered a drop in production from their two biggest offensive threats - Calvin Johnson and Matthew Stafford. Their banged up backfield situation further complicates the situation in Detroit, forcing them to pass more and more often due to the absence of a solid running game.

The flip-side of this, are the pleasantly surprising records of, especially the Vikings, but also the Chicago Bears. The latter's dominant defense has been so productive this year, and is an integral part of their success, therefore, it is hard to like the struggling Lion's passing game against possibly the best defense in the NFL:

Detroit Lions @ Chicago Bears

Score: DET 23 - 24 CHI

Analysis: The Bears defense should do enough to hold off the Lions at Soldier Field this Sunday. That doesn't mean it won't be close. The Lions have been involved in several tight games this season - the overtime loss to the Titans, as well as the last gasp victory over the Eagles last week - indicating that they will always remain competitive in games, and should never be written off. I see Calvin Johnson breaking his touchdown drought (by his standards) today and putting up impressive numbers, as Stafford will be forced to look for his number one threat. For Chicago, the biggest question on the offensive side of the ball remains Jay Cutler's ability, who has been on and off with regards to his production this season. The Detroit defense is solid, and Cutler could become a key player if the Bears' running game gets stifled by the Lions front seven. He should pull through however, finding Brandon Marshall and Matt Forte for passing touchdowns. Robbie Gould could be called upon for a game winner, turning the tables on Jason Hanson, who performed that duty last week.

Bold Prediction: Matthew Stafford will throw three interceptions.

Jacksonville Jaguars @ Oakland Raiders

Score: JAC 16 - 27 OAK

Analysis: These two teams have suffered difficult starts to the season, but the Raiders seem to have more upside going forward. Carson Palmer has had a solid year so far, and should continue to thrive at home, against a Jags defense that has been susceptible to the Pass on the road. Darren McFadden showed breakout signs against Pittsburgh and Atlanta recently, and should be in for a nice day against the 29th ranked Jacksonville run defense. For the Jags, their success will likely rest on Maurice Jones Drew's shoulders, as the Raiders secondary should pick off Blaine Gabbert as they did three times to Matt Ryan, one of the best QB's in the league, last week. It will be a battle of the running backs, but I like the Raiders to win convincingly in the black hole.

Bold Predictions: Darren McFadden will have 150 yards from scrimmage, Denarius Moore will have a 60+ yard touchdown catch. 

Game of the Week

No Ray-vens: Lewis and Webb injuries boost Texans

Over the past five years, the Baltimore Ravens have been one of the best defensive units in the National Football League.

In 2012 however, they have not been so prolific.

Their defense ranks 26th in the league in terms of yards allowed, and despite holding the Chiefs, Bengals and Browns to under 16 points this season, more offensively talented teams have proved that this Ravens squad can be susceptible to big plays. New England and Dallas were both touching 30 points against them, and arguably had a better chance to win their respective games than the Ravens themselves. DeMarco Murray was on pace for a huge day, amassing 91 yards off just 13 carries before his injury forced him to leave the game, and the success of Felix Jones and even Philip Tanner in his place goes further to expel the myth that no-one can run on the Baltimore defense.

And after all these shortcomings, the team proceeded to lose corner Lardarius Webb and important defensive leader, linebacker Ray Lewis, to a possible season ending triceps injury. He has been placed on Injured Reserve and looks unlikely to play again this season, despite the designated to return tag on his name.

Sidelined: Ray Lewis is set to miss the rest of the season

In contrast to this decline in status, the Houston Defense seems to be going in the opposite direction. Last season and this season has seen a changed unit that now ranks in the top 6 regarding yards allowed - and bear in mind they are yet to have their bye week, and suffered a high scoring defeat to the Packers last Sunday, which can be seen as an anomaly.

With Baltimore's already declining defensive unit becoming depleted of its stars, the formidable Texans offense should cause a heap of problems. Here follows my analysis for this big AFC matchup:

Baltimore Ravens @ Houston Texans:

Score: BAL 17 - 27 HOU

Analysis: After a hot start, Joe Flacco has struggled in recent weeks to inspire the Ravens passing attack, and his primary weapon Torrey Smith has been equally quiet, putting up mediocre numbers against Kansas City and Dallas. Despite Aaron Rodgers torching what has been a very solid Texans secondary last week, that was Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Flacco does not have anywhere near the talent of the Packers quarterback. A couple of picks should be on the cards for Flacco, although he could well re-establish a connection of sorts with Smith - connecting with him for a couple of big plays down the field. The most consistent option in the offense outside of Ray Rice looks to be Anquan Boldin, who has been catching plenty of his targets recently - his production going forward will be essential, especially considering that Dennis Pitta has suffered a decline in his numbers after a fast start at Tight End.

As for the Texans, I see a huge day for Arian Foster. The best running back in the league should have no problems carving up the Ravens, who were struggling against what was seemingly the entire Dallas running back depth chart. Matt Schaub's game should be solid, but I feel the Texans will gain a lead early, and will not need to pass as much as Flacco. Such will be the dominance of the Texans, I fancy Ben Tate to get in the end-zone as well, in relief of Foster.

Bold Prediction: Arian Foster will rush for 120 yards and two touchdowns.

What I learned this week..

Lions Roar: Stafford and Lions lead way in crazy week of comebacks

If I learnt anything this week, it's that any result in this league is difficult to predict. The extent of the twists and turns that entailed during this week of football was mesmerizing, whether it was Jason Hanson kicking the winning field goal, or Peyton Manning/Phillip Rivers leading the Broncos back from a first half shutout on Monday Night.

Oh, and by the way, no-one can catch Robert Griffin III. 

Ultimately it is becoming tougher and tougher to recognize patterns of consistency. Take the 3-3 Jets for example. Despite the 49ers boasting the best defense in the league, the men in green lacked any kind of penetrating weapons on offense. The next week Shonn Greene goes mad, rushing for 161 yards and 3 touchdowns, resulting in a domination of the Colts. 

The league keeps throwing up surprises, and week 7 looks just as ambiguous. Matchups between the Cowboys/Panthers, Saints/Bucs and Ravens/Texans could go either way and I'll attempt to predict some of these results later in the week.

As for Robert Griffin, he continues to impress, and after six weeks - approaching the halfway mark of the regular season - no-one can pass off his performances as flukes. The level of consistency he is achieving is constantly ranking him in the top 5 quarterbacks each and every week, and I think he has developed into a better player than Cam Newton was at this time last year - who had the benefit of poor defensive chemistry to take advantage of due to the lengthy holdout taking place during much of the pre-season. RG3's 76 yard touchdown run highlights his speed and the multiple bases opposing defenses must cover to compete against him.

The only thing that could possibly hold him back now is an injury. The concussion he suffered in week 5 was a result of his committed running style, that he may need to temper in order to stay healthy. Otherwise, I love RG3 going forward.

Finally, looking forward to the Niners/Seahawks this week, I believe San Francisco will turn things around at home. The Seahawks seem a little susceptible on the road, and the 49ers will look to amend their poor outing against the Giants. This will be an interesting matchup quarterback wise, with Russel Wilson coming off a great performance in the defeat of the Patriots and Alex Smith having a rough day against Tom Coughlin's squad. 

With two league-leading defenses on opposite sides of the ball, this will undoubtedly be a tight game, and points should be scarce - I see the kickers playing an important part, especially David Akers from long distance. Another notable performance should come from Vernon Davis - Alex Smith's most trusted target.

The most exciting matchup in this game will be Marshawn Lynch versus the SF run defense, which he managed to gash unexpectedly last year. Despite the Beast lying dormant last week, only amassing 52 yards, I think he will be able to get going tonight. However, I do believe he will be kept in check by the Niners, but 80 yards and a touchdown from Lynch would not surprise me.

Oh, and did I mention I kinda like Robert Griffin III?

Weekly Predictions

Giant task: G-Men tackle Niners in big Week 6 Matchup

Any trip west in the NFC this year is far from easy. As the only division to boast four teams with positive records, a prospective road matchup against the joint-leaders of such a competitive division is far from enticing.

As if that wasn't enough, the Giants also face a team looking to exact revenge for the 20-17 NFC championship game result last season. Fresh wounds in San Francisco will look to be appeased.

With both teams in competitive divisions and considering the recent history between the two, the stakes could not be higher. Here follows my predictions for the interesting matchups this week:

New York Giants @ San Francisco 49ers:

Score: NYG 17 - 24 SF 

Analysis: I cannot see the Niners coming up short at Candlestick this week. Despite Ahmad Bradshaw coming off a big week against Cleveland and the likely return of Hakeem Nicks to join Victor Cruz in the Giants' passing game, I feel the 49ers defense will be too strong for Eli Manning's team. Alex Smith has been impressive so far this season and this form should continue against an ordinary New York defense, which allowed the 0-5 Browns to put up 27 points last week. I like Vernon Davis and Michael Crabtree to have nice days, with Frank Gore getting in the end zone. Victor Cruz should also get a chance to perform his Salsa dance.

Bold Prediction: Ahmad Bradshaw is limited to no more than 60 yards rushing.

New England Patriots @ Seattle Seahawks

Score: NE 21 - 17 SEA

Analysis: A tough road game for the Patriots, who I think will just edge it. The Seahawks defense is one of the best in the league, and should cause a few problems for Tom Brady - it would not surprise me to see him picked off this week. The performance of Marshawn Lynch will have a big impact as to the outcome of this matchup and he should stay consistent on Sunday, rushing for over 85 yards. However, ultimately I think the Seattle offense will not be prolific enough to keep Brady and the Pats off the field for as long as they would like. I see a nice game for Rob Gronkowski, despite the possible return of Aaron Hernandez - as a default target of Brady's, he should make some plays when Lloyd and Welker are covered on the outside.

Bold Prediction: The Seattle defense intercept Brady, and return it for a touchdown.

Dallas Cowboys @ Baltimore Ravens

Score: DAL 20 - 23 BAL

Analysis: The Cowboys will give the Ravens a run for their money on Sunday. While the Ravens have improved to 4-1 on the season, their once dominant defense is not the force it once was, and the Cowboys have arguably gone in the opposite direction. Morris Claiborne and Brandon Carr have been excellent at Corner-back throughout their first four games, and Dallas boasts the number one pass defense in the league. Joe Flacco should be in for a tough game, and running back Ray Rice could well be leaned upon to drive the ravens offense. Big play wideout Torrey Smith should struggle again this week, while on the other side of the ball, Jason Witten could see a large portion of Tony Romo's targets. Ultimately, I think the Baltimore defense and special teams make two big plays to win the game after trailing early.

Bold Prediction: Tony Romo will throw for over 300 yards and two touchdowns.

Southern Dominance: The 2012 NFL Season so far

Pride of the South: Atlanta, Houston lead pack after 5 weeks

With a little over a month of the 2012 NFL season underway, two teams, arguably unexpectedly, have emerged flawless - the Atlanta Falcons and the Houston Texans. Undeniably, Mike Smith and Gary Kubiak entered the regular season in charge of strong teams, widely tipped for their respective divisions, but the fact that they have both reached 5-0 records by this point has exceeded the expectations of many, who perhaps did not foresee the dominance with which these teams would start the season.

The talent on the offensive side of the ball in Atlanta, serves to highlight why this organisation has been so successful. Despite questions over the ability of veteran runner Michael Turner to remain competitive in a now pass dominated league, as well as a pass centred offense, he has complemented the star studded receiving corps of Julio Jones, Roddy White and Tony Gonzalez to great success. Furthermore, the idea highlighted in the preseason - that Matt Ryan may finally realise his full potential this year - has been proved true, and at this moment in time, there might not be a hotter quarterback in the league. With Gonzalez still managing to put up league leading numbers at the tight end position after so many years, this is perhaps the most prolific offense in the National Football League.

While the Defense had a great deal of success in the 28-3 victory at Qualcomm Stadium, stifling Philip Rivers and the Chargers passing attack, it must be considered that the San Diego running game was pretty much non-existent at this stage of the season - a backfield of Jackie Battle and Curtis Brinkley filling in for the injured previous first round draft pick, Ryan Matthews. Aside from this encouraging stat line, it has been relatively easy for opposing teams with potent offensive weapons, to put points on the board against the Falcons. The 17th ranked rush and pass defense in the league makes me question the ability of this team to go all the way through the post-season, and win a championship - it seems that the offense is relied upon to outscore the opposition in a high scoring shootout, and while the team's achievements to get to this stage unbeaten are admirable, the question remains over whether the defense will hold up against stronger, playoff bound teams later in the season.

The Falcons have answered a lot of questions on the offensive side of the ball, but with a seemingly mediocre defense there is one question that still seems to plague this talented team - can Mike Smith improve on his 0-3 post season record, and take this team further?

In the AFC, Houston are similarly dominating their division - the 2-2 Colts being the nearest rivals, and the key difference between themselves and the Falcons is their all round performance in every department, particularly the defense. With arguably the best running back in the game in Arian Foster, a competent QB in Matt Schaub and a long proven aerial threat in Andre Johnson, the offense seems to take care of itself. The defense, complementing this, refuses to give up points easily, allowing under 17 points in four of their opening five games, with notable performances coming from Defensive End J.J Watt, who has amassed 7.5 sacks in the league already this season, only one behind league leader Clay Matthews.

For me, Houston are the complete package and, currently, the strongest team in the NFL. I would argue they possess the talent that Atlanta has, but the more all round complexion of this talent makes them a bigger post-season threat. I'll say it, hear me now believe me later, Houston will reach the AFC championship game this season. There is no team I would dread more to see on the upcoming schedule, and while the Falcons have questions to answer over their durability in this league, I believe the Texans have already answered them.